How to beat Dabble Pick'Em?

The fixed payout product is new to Australia. Although on paper it would seem like the bookmaker has the edge, you can definitely beat it. To understand how, you first need to understand how Dabble makes money from Pick’Em.

How does Pick’Em make money?

The 3-leg All-In option pays 6.5x. For your bet to break even: p^3 × 6.5 = 1, which gives p = 53.56%. You need to win 53.56% of individual player prop selections to break even. Most punters win 40-45%, so Dabble profits. But you can beat this.

How to win

You need to find legs where the true probability is above 53.56%. The best way to calculate true probability is to take the market average price across multiple bookmakers and remove the margin (no-vig). If the no-vig price is below 1.867 (the equivalent of 53.56%), that leg is positive EV for a 3-leg Pick’Em.

To better understand why market average no-vig price works as a true probability reference, check out our blog on Positive EV betting

The Betsniper Pick’Em EV tool calculates the no-vig price for every market in the Dabble Pick’Em screen automatically, showing you only the legs that beat the threshold for your chosen number of legs.

Threshold odds by number of legs

The 5-leg All-In offers the best value — you only need a 52.55% win rate. Each additional leg increases overall EV but also increases variance significantly, so you need more volume to see the results.

Best practices

Use at least 6 books to get an accurate market average. Bet on game day for account safety and because odds reflect the most accurate information. Start with 2-3 leg Pick’Ems while you’re learning, then progress to 4-5 legs as you become comfortable with variance.

Start your free 7-day trial and access the Pick’Em EV tool. Book a free strategy call here.